The trade balance had a surplus of US$ 3.732 billion and current trade of US$ 31.33 billion in November, according to data released this Tuesday (01/12) by the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) of the Ministry of Economy. In the month, exports totaled US$ 17.531 billion and imports, US$ 13.799 billion.
Total– In the year, exports totaled US$191.678 billion and imports, US$140.518 billion, with a positive balance of US$51.16 billion and current trade of US$332.195 billion. "What we observed in November is the result of what has been happening throughout the second half of the year, with recovery of imports and maintenance of exports", commented the Undersecretary of Intelligence and Foreign Trade Statistics at Secex, Herlon Brandão, at a press conference .
stable trajectory– Secex data show that exports have been maintaining a stable trajectory throughout the year, with some changes in the composition of the export basket, which influenced the first semester in a different way than it has been influencing now, in the second semester. According to Brandão, this has been helping to maintain the growth in exported volume, despite the drop in value. "We have growing volumes, and the price is what causes the drop in value, with a reduction of 3% in the month", he explained.
Imports– Despite a drop of 2.6% compared to the same period of the previous year, one of the highlights of November was the value of imports, of US$ 13.8 billion, with a daily average of around US$ 700 million. That daily average, at the height of the pandemic's impact in July, was less than $500 million.
international prices– The undersecretary recalled that, in July, the drop in imported value was around 35%, but now it is less than 3%, driven by the drop in international prices (-10.3%). “What calls our attention is this large increase in the quantum (volume) of imports, with an outstanding growth of 9.6%”, he pointed out. This growth is deconcentrated, encompassing several products, but mainly inputs for domestic production, including electronic inputs, in addition to fertilizers and fertilizers.
Trade balance– The trade balance increased 4.7% compared to November the previous year. The trade flow, in turn, expresses both the sustainability of exports and the trajectory of better performance of imports, with a drop of 1.8%.
Products and sectors– What pulled exports in November, in terms of values, was the extractive industry, with emphasis on iron ore and oil. The result of iron ore, for example, was driven by the increase of more than 40% in prices that month.
Farming– In the case of agriculture, with a 21.9% drop in exports, Herlon Brandão cites the off-season and considers it “natural to have less share of agricultural products at the end of the year”.
harvest– In addition, Brandão sees the influence of the shipping schedule for the harvest period, which changes from one year to another. Last year, the outflow of soybeans was later, with an increase in corn shipments at the end of the year. In 2020, however, there was a concentration of soybean sales in the first half, decreasing exports at the end of the year. The manufacturing industry, on the other hand, registered a drop of 2.9%, after two consecutive months of increase.
Ore– Despite the fact that the price of iron ore contributed to the increase in exported value, the increase in the volume of extractive industry (+23.4%) is much more prevalent in the month. The manufacturing industry also had a positive quantum (+3.8%). "This is also quite significant because, despite the price drop, it shows competitiveness in this sector, which makes the total positive (+2.8%)", observed the Undersecretary of Secex.
economic recovery– On the import side, products from the manufacturing industry represent 93% of the total and had a reduction of just 0.5% in November, driven by a 9.7% drop in prices. Imported volumes from the manufacturing industry, however, grew 10.8%. "We see this growth very in line with what was announced, of economic recovery, after the most acute phase of the pandemic is over," stated Brandão.
Daily average– He explained that, in the daily average, exports have been showing stability throughout the year, while in imports, the curve shows a movement of recovery as of July. “It is very likely that, next month, we will have a growth in the imported value. It will be the second of the year, as in February there was also an increase in imports and, probably, in December we will have another one”, he predicted.
YTD– These trajectories lead to the accumulated result for the year, a reduction of 6.1% in exports and 13.6% in imports until November, reinforcing Secex's estimates for the end of the year, presented in October. “We expect a trade balance of US$ 55 billion. We have $51 billion. The projected trade flow was for a drop of 9% and is with a 9.4% reduction”, he pointed out.
extractive industry– In the accumulated result for the year, the mining and quarrying industry still presents a small reduction (-2.1%) and the manufacturing industry has been suffering the biggest fall of the year (-12.4%). "These are the products most subject to a reduction in world demand", says Brandão. The agricultural sector continues to stand out, with a record of soy exports that contributed a lot to this segment. (Ministry of Economy)
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